February 11, 2025

An angry beaver's guide to surviving tariffs

Photos: unknown source

BY SOUTHGREY.CA STAFF — It seems you can't have a waking moment these days, without hearing about the threat of tariffs on Canadian goods and how they will affect our economy. Well, after months of roller-coaster-like contemplation, US President Donald Trump has finally announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into their country. And hang on to your popcorn box, more may be on the way!

Industry stakeholders on both sides of the Canada-US border were quick to condemn the blanket tariffs.

"We must distinguish between trusted trade partners, like Canada, and those who are seeking to undercut our industries as they work to dominate the global market," said United Steelworkers (USW) International President David McCall shortly after the announcement. "Canada is not the problem."

Here in Canada, Catherine Cobden, President and CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA), said, "When President Trump implemented tariffs on Canadian steel in 2018, we saw massive disruptions and harm on both sides of the border, hurting both America and Canada." She added, "While the target of Canadian steel and aluminum is completely baseless and unwarranted, we must retaliate immediately."

On social media, many of us are expressing our distain just a little more colourfully. One Bluesky post put it most bluntly, "This tariff thing is so f-ing stupid." Another disgruntled commenter said, "Nobody trusts America," in reference to the ever-increasing trail of discarded trade deals and broken promises coming from the current US administration. But like it or not, this sad day in the history of US-Canada relations has come to pass and thy will be done on Earth, as it is along the 49th parallel.

So we thought we'd talk to an economic expert for some guidance and specific advice on how to survive the significant challenges ahead.

Paul Smetanin is the President and CEO of the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA). Although he knows we are facing an uncertain outcome, he says that "tariffs aren't a long term thing." He goes on to explain that "the current US administration has definitely weaponized tariffs and trade." But he concluded his musings with a smattering of hope, "In two years time, Trump will have a real problem."

The acclaimed, economic analytics expert is referring to the US 'mid-terms' just two years away — general elections that are held near the midpoint of a president's four-year term of office.

Importantly, 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, and roughly 1/3 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate are up for grabs. In addition, 36 governors are elected during midterm elections and many states also elect officers to their state legislatures.

Given the very slim majority that Republicans currently hold over both chambers, if the US economy deteriorates enough as a result of the imposition of tariffs, an aggrieved population could upset the balance of power in the US significantly.

Between now and then, however, keep a tight grip on your shorts! According to Smetanin, "Canada exports approximately $35 billion worth of steel and aluminum to the US every year. Tariffs at a rate of 25%, applied to these goods, over a six-month duration, could sink our economy into recession for an 18-month period." Higher prices and interest rates will also be our folly.

As an added effect, tariffs will put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, which might actually soften the blow to our economy in the short term. But Smetanin points out, "a weakened dollar would also raise the cost of living on everything."

In all this madness, Smetanin sees an opportunity, though. "Nothing will change unless it's put at risk," he says. "I really do hope that it takes a crisis like this to effect change."

According to the CANCEA President and CEO, Canada suffers from a decades-long under-investment in infrastructure as well as a steady and chronic decline in productivity. If there is political will, changes can be made to better plan for our economic future, revitalize competition and reduce trade friction between the provinces. But Smetanin warns that it will take a concerted effort to get this done.

Political will, don't fail us now!

For South Grey residents, Smetanin recommends keeping in touch with our local government representatives and forcing that political will. "Advocate to your MP about your predicament," he says. "Ensure your provincial and federal MPs know about the pain you're going through." In the end though, "remember this is all going to be temporary."

Ordinary Canadians are already putting together their own concerted effort to avoid US-made products and shop more smartly. In a recent statement, CBC Dragon's Den celebrity and Managing General Partner at District Ventures Capital Arlene Dickinson said, "I’ve felt enormous pride in how we as Canadians have quickly come together — using our voices and our wallets — to support Canadian businesses, Canadian jobs, and Canadian-made products." She added, "We are making choices that strengthen us, not weaken us."

In my own observation, I haven't seen this much Canadian patriotism since the Canada-Soviet Union Summit Series. In fact, it's this grass-roots movement to buy Canadian-made goods, that inspired us to publish our own local products guide. South Grey businesses are invited to tell us what Canadian-made products they, themselves, sell and/or recommend at this time.

To add your local business and Canadian-made products to the list, fill out the contact form selecting "submit to the South Grey Canadian products guide," in the "I want to" dropdown field.

Submissions will show up on the South Grey Canadian Products Guide page, updated regularly. Revisit this page often and shop local!

To sum it all up: knuckle down for a possible recession but keep a view of hope on your horizon; advocate to your government representatives to do the things that will make our economy less vulnerable to such "f-ing stupidity;" and use your own buying power to support Canadian-made products.

 

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